Happy Holidays & New Year! 

The MarketDesk team wishes you and your family a happy holiday season and a spectacular 2022. We love this business and are excited by the new innovations we are planning to roll out over the coming years. Thank you for being an exceptional partner and a MarketDesk client!

Year-End Summary

2021 was another phenomenal year of growth. MarketDesk now supports clients in 28 states and 7 countries. This year our team focused heavily on product development to optimize your experience — streamlining reports, launching the new portal, and expanding the lineup of resources. On the portfolio side, statistics supported multiple off-consensus asset allocation calls and guided portfolios through several trend changes caused by Covid variants, Fed policy, and inflation. See below for the Best of 2021.

2022: Expect a Challenging Market

As we look toward 2022, the calendar is filling up with events and catalysts: finishing the taper, interest rate hikes by an increasingly hawkish Fed, midterm elections and a potential change of control in the House and Senate, decelerating economic growth, and risk of increased market volatility. Our team is looking forward to continuing to make great market calls driven by statistics, starting with the release of the 1Q 2022 Asset Allocator's Guide on January 2nd.

Key Asset Allocation Calls

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Evidence-based investing rewards facts, not opinions. Instead of basing decisions on recent trends or “expert” opinions, our team focuses on historical data, leading indicators, and statistical probabilities to guide asset allocation. Below are three data-driven, off-consensus market calls that drove outperformance in 2021:

#1  Upgrade Growth & Large Caps (June 2021) - View Charts

Large Caps (+7.4%) vs Small Caps (-1.8%)

Large Growth (+10.5%) vs Large Value (+3.8%)

#2  Overweight Long Duration Bonds (March 2021) - View Charts

Long Duration (+4.4%) vs Short Duration (-0.1%)

#3  Overweight Fallen Angels (March 2021) - View Charts

Fallen Angels (+6.4%) vs Bond Aggregate (+1.5%) and High Yield (+3.6%)

Outsourced CIO ETF Models

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The ETF Models aim to generate consistent, risk-adjusted outperformance across market cycles via a low-cost passive portfolio (all in ETF fees ~0.10%). The OCIO Models delivered on this goal during 2021 with the MarketDesk U.S. Tactical 85/15 Model returning 23.3% YTD vs the benchmark's 21.2% return. Since inception in February 2020, the U.S. Tactical 85/15 Model has returned 57% (+4.2% vs benchmark).

Stock Models

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Clients continue to ask about the MarketDesk Small Cap Relative Value, High Dividend, and Momentum portfolios. All three portfolios were notable outperformers this year returning 51%, 33%, and 20%, respectively. Note: Stay tuned for exciting news on MarketDesk Indices in 2022!

Most Read Macro Notes

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In addition to the quarterly Asset Allocator's Guide, our team published 16 in-depth Strategy Snapshots this year discussing macro strategy and portfolio positioning. Below are three of the most-read reports:

#1  2022 Midterm Election Guide - View Report

#2  Positioning for Tighter Credit Conditions - View Report

#3  History Points to Single-Digit Returns in 2022 - View Report

2021 Closed Tactical Ideas

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MarketDesk published its 33rd tactical idea and closed 20 positions this year. Tactical ideas are satellite portfolio positions to take advantage of investment themes and generate additional outperformance. The average tactical idea has returned +28.6% with an average hold period of ~7 months. Below are three tactical trades closed this year:  

#1  Private Equity Stocks (+86% in 11 months) - View Report

#2  S&P 500 High Beta ETF (+29% in 6 months) - View Report

#3  Managed Care Stocks (+25% in 5 months) - View Report